Why RIM Shouldn’t Be Completely Counted Out Yet
The wolves of the tech-blogging world are circling around Research In Motion, calling them has-beens and tossing out rumors left and right as the once-proud BlackBerry brand fades into antiquity thanks to the rise of iPhone and Android. There are reasons to believe that we haven’t seen the last of RIM, most notably the probability that their weakness in the market today will make them a prime target for a buyout in the future.
They have been approached in the past. Insiders say that the reason they haven’t been bought has less to do with the company’s desire to save themselves but because they are simply not attractive enough for the bigger fish like Microsoft and Amazon to make a bid. This is not the case. Not exactly.
They aren’t attractive enough right now because they’re still a little too big. The decline is apparent but all it will take is a major partner to come in and rejuvenate the brand with fresh ideas and an even more important fresh volley of cash to make them a player again. Can the ever be where they were in 2007-2009? No. Is the mobile device market getting large enough for there to be 4 major players? Definitely.
RIM has a major opportunity in 2012. If they are able to make BB10 a successful mobile OS, they will be purchased by Amazon, Google, or one of the other big fish. It’s that simple. They have 3 things that the bigger companies want: foreign marketshare, patents, and talent.
The US market is the most important one but it’s far from being the end-all in the grand scheme. Europe and Asia still hold BlackBerry dear to their hearts because of the security element. In the US, spying on one’s iPhone or Android device is something that we know is happening, but we simply don’t care as much. In Asia and many European countries, security and privacy are held at a higher level.
An Amazon- or Google-backed RIM would have the ability to hit markets the way that Android and iPhone cannot. The devices themselves can be made less-expensively and distribution channels are easier to navigate with them than they are with others, particularly the iPhone.
Why would we not mention Microsoft? They have bet a lot on Windows 8 and have never demonstrated in the past the desire to branch out from their core internal software. Microsoft would only be a player if the rumors are true and BB10 is not going to be ready in 2012. We believe it will be.
In response to rumors that they’re having software problems, they released this statement:
“As explained on our earnings call, the broad engineering impact of this decision and certain other factors significantly influenced the anticipated timing for the BlackBerry 10 devices. The anonymous claim suggesting otherwise is inaccurate and uninformed. As RIM has previously explained, and as Mike Lazaridis reiterated on the earnings call, we will not launch BlackBerry 10 devices until we know they are ready and we believe this new chip set architecture is required to deliver the world class user experience that our customers will expect. Any suggestion to the contrary is simply false.”
Once BB10 is out and the reviews start pouring in, Amazon and Google will be watching closely. If the global market attaches even a minor amount of interest on the new devices and OS, expect the serious offers to start rolling in. If it is a miserable failure, than the tech bloggers are right and RIM won’t make it beyond 2014.







